I ask this. Has the US and its "Alliance" failed in our attempt to go into Iraq, effect a regime change and turn the country into a relatively stable, pro Western country?
I do realise the US is hardly pulling out at this point in time, nor will it in the foreseeable future.
But I would have to say yes. The US has failed and nothing short of a miracle will save the situation now. Because in the long term, the whole situation truly favours the Iraq hardliners. That the Arab world ALWAYS plays for the long term. Not the short. Not the medium. But the LONG term.
But to go into it. Short, Medium and Long term there are specific things the US forces needed to do.
So IMO how have these goals gone?Short Term
1. Establish a dialogue with all levels of Government to facilitate regime change.
2. Re-establish the rule of law, ensure that for the 'average' Iraqi, life returns to as close to normal as possible.
3. Ensure food, medical, utilities are all operating as part of (2)
Medium Term.
1. Establish a reputation and visibility with the Iraqi population as liberators, not occupiers. Friendly 'Good Guys' who can interact with the community with a reputation. Not necessarily universally loved, but at least respected.
2. Be showing a willingness to clean up the mess made in the invasion, including compensation/help for the nom-com casualties that would result in an invasion. This also ties in with (1)
3. Establish local agencies to supplement the US military, local security forces who will slowly take over into the long term. Including retraining the military and security forces in restraint and western style law enforcement.
4. Systematically demolish all symbols and methods of the old regime. Not inso much as blowing up statues, but destroying the torture centres, the political machines, the institutions that kept Sadam in power. Change the face of the army and police from enforcers of their leader to servants of the people. Keep the armed forces apart from the major figures from the old regime and systematically over the next year put them through intensive retraining. Take the time to do it right. And of course take out the key figures in Sadams Government and *bring them to justice.
But make sure you keep paying them while doing it, its a major source of employment in the country after all.
5. Take careful note of tribal and ethnic influences in the country. Traditions in the country and what they mean for nation building. Rivalries, vendettas, in essence get local expertise on the politics.
Long term.
1. Establish a multi level Government that the people can and will accept on all levels. Democratic. Apart from that, let the people chose. Its not the US nor are they going to have a Government like the US.
2. Establish a multi level judiciary that is functional and independent.
3. Gradually phase in the Iraqi Government and forces becoming fully responsible and Sovereign for its own actions. Show the US clearly moving from an occupying role, to an advisory role before finally withdrawing from the country.
4. Clearly leave the country in a state of Sovereignty over its own affairs. If the previous steps have all been done correctly, hopefully we'll have a fully functional country that can hold itself together well through clear checks and balances rather then the threat of a VX attack from Baghdad.
Short term.
1. Nothing really like it at all. We have the advisory council who have no real power, everything being in the hands of Paul Bermer. We have local administrations set up who are ineffective and mostly irrelevant to the function at local levels.
2. Dependent on location. In the 'Suni Triangle' lawlessness is not the word, but there is a high degree of criminal activity on the local scale. Foreign contractors are clearly not safe, even WITH heavily armed escorts. And they are critical to the long term restoration of the country. To be fair, quite a few locations around the country are quite stable. Most notably Bassra and the British zones of control. The big attack a while back in fact in Basra had to be carried out by insurgents from a long way out, because no locals are THAT unhappy. Of course then we have Fallujah....
3. The Iraqi army was disbanded immediately, which was just stupid. Some small units have gone through limited retraining, though a lot of it has been VERY rushed to get extra men for the increasingly deteriorating situation. Large scale desertions have happened, though hardly total. Local police units have not really had any retraining and many of them are out of work and unhappy. Their control in many locations contrasted to local militias and tribal forces is dubious at best.
Medium Term.
1. At its current level, the situation on the front lines could best be described as 'hostile'. The heavy handed and gross overkill in Fallujah sure hasn't endeared the US. The public response, aid convoys going into the city from all over, ancient and very real tribal rivalries being set aside to fight against the US. Numerous and heavy handed events all across the country.
A large part of this IMO is the simple lack of understanding both the US troops have of the Iraqi people and arab world and vice versa. While the ownus is more on the US troops to make the connection, its clearly not helped by a decade of anti US propaganda.
But the fact is VERY few of the US troops speak Arabic. Even less understand the Arab culture and how it works compared to the Western culture. And a minority of them are in the upper command who at the strategic level set policy. Its not helped by an apparently strong feeling in a lot of the troops that the Iraqi people are all hostile. All targets. That their lives are worth less then an American Soldiers simply because they ARE Iraqi's. You might want to look into a former CIA officer named Bob Bear. He wrote a book and he was the last real expert on the Arab world ON the ground that the CIA had prior to going nuts over technology.
2. Lets see. The first shipment of medical supplies into the country after Baghdad was taken over was from an Australian ship, which had an amount of supplies for the tiny Aus contingent. Which were not needed, they were sent to Baghdad. The US had enough medical units and supplies in theater to take upto ~30,000 casualties. None of this has moved into helping the Iraqi civilian population. Which has rather pressing needs and nothing really in the way of supplies.
3/4. The Iraqi military is all but non existent. More of a symbolic force, though this will probably change over time. But the fact that their training is being rushed through and they are being rotated out does not inspire me with confidence.
And given that the US was using the most horrible prison in the world...to do exactly what Saddam did (read torture and imprison people with no charge, legal recourse or warning...well, if you could hand a more successful propaganda victory to the opponents of the US, I can't think of one.
5. The very fact that the US tried to occupy and dominate Fallujah shows this is not happening. That city forever had been on the boarder of a dozen or so tribal zones, never a unified place. Even Saddam stayed out of the place, simply leaving it alone and keeping the various tribes expanding energy on each other. Going in guns blazing formed unity all right. The wrong type, directed at the US.
Long Term.
1. The current 'Government' would last about 5 hours if the US pulled out and we all know it. Which makes my opinion of its viability rather low.
2. I have not heard much on this score to be honest.
3. The 'handover of power' has been moved back and is for all intents and purposes ceremonial. The 'power' stays with Paul Bremer. The Government also has no really influence outside of Baghdad in the country.
4. We're not at this stage yet....and I don't have a clue HOW we're going to get to this stage.
So in short, more and more of the neutral and pro US people in Iraq are turning to the hardliners. The US is being seen increasingly as a brutal occupier who are not here to help the people, but to stay. The decades of propaganda of the US being a bunch of evil, brutal, heavy handed, murdering thugs is now looking less LIKE propaganda and more LIKE Sadam was right. I’m sure the average GI Joe has the best of intentions…but while its cliché, actions speak louder then words. And the actions taken thus far do not fill me with any kind of hope that the US will win in the long run. Which is precisely what the factions in Iraq ARE playing for.
And wining.
Thought’s? Flames? Opinions?
Sadly, as much as I had hoped that President Bush would have been able to somehow introduce democracy into the Arab world, it seems that it is only a matter of time until he caves in and is forced to abandon this plan. If Bush wins a second term, then the US is doomed to another 4 years of failure in Iraq.