Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 239 Bush 256

theski · Post by **theski** » 2004-09-21 04:01pm

As of 9/21

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

tons of different polls ... state and national

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-09-21 04:14pm

Not especially suprising. Kerry is just more and more ineffectual.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-09-21 04:15pm

Uh, just a few days ago, Bush had 311 electoral votes. Maybe he's been doing something right in the past few days.

Enforcer Talen · Post by **Enforcer Talen** » 2004-09-21 04:16pm

how the fuck do you lose against bush?

I mean, how???

its like hes almost trying. . .

theski · Post by **theski** » 2004-09-21 04:17pm

Enforcer Talen wrote:how the fuck do you lose against bush?

I mean, how???

its like hes almost trying. . .

Two words..... Karl Rove

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-09-21 04:28pm

Durandal wrote:Uh, just a few days ago, Bush had 311 electoral votes. Maybe he's been doing something right in the past few days.

Maybe a bit. Or maybe they're just using a slightly different standard to call it.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-09-21 04:30pm

The standard hasn't changed, as far as I know. And Florida and Arkansas are dead-even right now.

Gil Hamilton · Post by **Gil Hamilton** » 2004-09-21 06:03pm

According to that, Pennsylvania is back in the Blue, when it was in the Red the last time that site was posted, so I'm happier.

Fire Fly · Post by **Fire Fly** » 2004-09-21 06:20pm

Kerry is starting to trail because he's failed miserably to find a theme for himself other than "I'm not Bush." When you think about Edwards and Dean, they all had their own strong and clear message, something that resonated with the people. Constantly attacking Bush will only do so much in the long run; eventually, Kerry's going to run out of steam and momentum. In addition to that, Kerry lacks something that Bush has: personality. Kerry is more stiff than a 60 year old on viagra. He's so fucking monotone and even when he smiles, he still looks like a statue. Bush, although not as intellectual nor articulate as Kerry, can talk vernacular. If Kerry wants to win, he's gotta take some charisma classes from Edwards. Using artillery to blast your opponent can only do so much; Kerry needs to start using some combine arms here.

Darth Garden Gnome · Post by **Darth Garden Gnome** » 2004-09-21 06:37pm

A helluva lot better than last time, when Bush was winning by 80 votes. Florida seems as key now as it was in the last election. It could put Kerry just over the top, or cement Bush for sure.

CelesKnight · Post by **CelesKnight** » 2004-09-21 06:47pm

Durandal wrote:Uh, just a few days ago, Bush had 311 electoral votes. Maybe he's been doing something right in the past few days.

By "he" you mean Kerry?

I doubt it. I think that what you're seeing is the variation between pollsters, not a real change amoung the American people. The "Votemaster" just added a bunch of Zogby polls--polls which have consistantly favored Kerry (relative to most other pollsters). As soon as the next set of non-Zogby polls come out, the states will likely switch back.

Fire Fly · Post by **Fire Fly** » 2004-09-21 06:48pm

Exnay on the 'Kerry is starting to..." part. But really, I haven't seen any change on Kerry's part to indicate that he's done something different; more likely than not, it was the CBS memo that did a little damage.

Side note: Ugh....someone activate their time machine and make it November already. No wonder young people don't vote much. I'm getting pissed at Bush for not being a good president and getting pissed at Kerry for being a walking stick.

theski · Post by **theski** » 2004-09-21 06:48pm

CelesKnight wrote:
Durandal wrote:Uh, just a few days ago, Bush had 311 electoral votes. Maybe he's been doing something right in the past few days.
By "he" you mean Kerry?

I doubt it. I think that what you're seeing is the variation between pollsters, not a real change amoung the American people. The "Votemaster" just added a bunch of Zogby polls--polls which have consistantly favored Kerry (relative to most other pollsters). As soon as the next set of non-Zogby polls come out, the states will likely switch back.

Zogby is the only major to trend that way..........

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-09-21 06:59pm

CelesKnight wrote:By "he" you mean Kerry?

Yes.

I doubt it. I think that what you're seeing is the variation between pollsters, not a real change amoung the American people. The "Votemaster" just added a bunch of Zogby polls--polls which have consistantly favored Kerry (relative to most other pollsters). As soon as the next set of non-Zogby polls come out, the states will likely switch back.

Zogby has shown to be a reliable poll. It was the only one which predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote in 2000.

CelesKnight · Post by **CelesKnight** » 2004-09-21 07:29pm

Durandal wrote:
I doubt it. I think that what you're seeing is the variation between pollsters, not a real change amoung the American people. The "Votemaster" just added a bunch of Zogby polls--polls which have consistantly favored Kerry (relative to most other pollsters). As soon as the next set of non-Zogby polls come out, the states will likely switch back.
Zogby has shown to be a reliable poll. It was the only one which predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote in 2000.

Zogby's accuracy (or lack thereof) doesn't change the fact that the huge swing is because of variation in pollsters, and is not indicitive of a change in the American people's opinion of Kerry. If e-v.com only used Zogby polls, I doubt that it would have ever had Bush with 300+ electoral votes. Hence, no sudden swing towards Kerry.

Jalinth · Post by **Jalinth** » 2004-09-21 07:29pm

Durandal wrote:
CelesKnight wrote:By "he" you mean Kerry?
Yes.

I doubt it. I think that what you're seeing is the variation between pollsters, not a real change amoung the American people. The "Votemaster" just added a bunch of Zogby polls--polls which have consistantly favored Kerry (relative to most other pollsters). As soon as the next set of non-Zogby polls come out, the states will likely switch back.
Zogby has shown to be a reliable poll. It was the only one which predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote in 2000.

If you look at the maps, 122 votes are in the "tied" or "barely" categories. So at this point, slight shifts could lead to wholesale changes in electoral votes.

Even in the Zogby's poll, more than half the states covered are within the margin of error.

Basically, still too close to call due to the first past the post system used for deciding electoral votes.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-09-21 07:41pm

CelesKnight wrote:
Durandal wrote:
I doubt it. I think that what you're seeing is the variation between pollsters, not a real change amoung the American people. The "Votemaster" just added a bunch of Zogby polls--polls which have consistantly favored Kerry (relative to most other pollsters). As soon as the next set of non-Zogby polls come out, the states will likely switch back.
Zogby has shown to be a reliable poll. It was the only one which predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote in 2000.
Zogby's accuracy (or lack thereof) doesn't change the fact that the huge swing is because of variation in pollsters, and is not indicitive of a change in the American people's opinion of Kerry. If e-v.com only used Zogby polls, I doubt that it would have ever had Bush with 300+ electoral votes. Hence, no sudden swing towards Kerry.

So why has the site tracked changes in public opinion pretty well? Kerry's number of votes took a big dive after the Swift Boat Veteran's ads.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-09-21 07:44pm

Durandal wrote:Zogby has shown to be a reliable poll. It was the only one which predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote in 2000.

I'm unimpressed. Zogby even does a lot of polling by e-mail, and regular e-mail users are considerably more liberal than non-e-mail users.

CelesKnight · Post by **CelesKnight** » 2004-09-21 09:22pm

Durandal wrote:So why has the site tracked changes in public opinion pretty well? Kerry's number of votes took a big dive after the Swift Boat Veteran's ads.

The site's results do move when public opinion moves, but that hardly means that it would only move when public opinion moves. The site has just been updated to reflect a large number of polls by a pollster whose results have consistantly favored Kerry this election cycle (relative to other pollsters). It's not surprising that the site's results suddenly shifted. And I would bet you a cookie that it's going to shift back towards Bush as soon as any other pollster weights in.

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2004-09-21 09:24pm

Holy shit, Marylands exactly tied

Bugsby · Post by **Bugsby** » 2004-09-21 10:09pm

All the states that are "barely Bush," "barely Kerry," or dead even are within the MoE. So really Kerry has 183, Bush has 207, and the rest are up for grabs.

And once again, it comes down to Florida...

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-09-21 10:15pm

MKSheppard wrote:Holy shit, Marylands exactly tied

Just think, Shep: your vote might make a difference if this keeps up!

Illuminatus Primus · Post by **Illuminatus Primus** » 2004-09-21 10:23pm

Wooo Floridian power! We will crush all resistance.

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2004-09-21 10:29pm

Master of Ossus wrote:Just think, Shep: your vote might make a difference if this keeps up!

MUAHHAHAHAH

CelesKnight · Post by **CelesKnight** » 2004-09-21 10:42pm

Illuminatus Primus wrote:Wooo Floridian power! We will crush all resistance.

[Tinfoil hat]You may have won today, but you WILL bow before the Great Alaskan Weather Control DeviceTM! http://www.do wnunderwe bsites.com/weather.htm[/tinfoil hat]