Zogby conducts poll of cell phone-only voters

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-11-01 12:14pm

Zogby has conducted a poll of people who only use cell phones via SMS messaging. Most of these people were in the 18-29 group. The results are decidedly in favor of Kerry, 55% to 40%, +/- 1.2%.

Also, even more interesting, only 2.3% of respondents said that they did not plan to vote. If all these people get out and vote, we'll certainly get a nice surprise come Tuesday.

Stravo · Post by **Stravo** » 2004-11-01 12:31pm

Yesterday in Meet the Press there was a heated discussion about polling and the general consensus was that polling, particularly in this election just does not seem to be as precise as pollsters would like us to think. They ran a side by side analysis of the various polls and showed the differences between each poll, even one that had Bush up as much as 5% and one that had Kerry up by 2% and everything in between. As one pundit put it, polls are at the mercy of human nature making them inherently flawed.

The real deal will be tomorrow. I think the fact that Bush keeps going back to Florida shows that the big lead that many polls show in Florida for him just may not exist. The campaign is obviously very concerned.

SirNitram · Post by **SirNitram** » 2004-11-01 12:43pm

Well done! It's about time this obvious gap in polling methodology was closed, and I'm glad a reliable name in the biz did it.

Of course, this doesn't close the big hole for tomorrow: Early voting. The accuracy of Exit Polling, normally as reliable as a rock, just dropped.