Guns, Horses, Steel, but no germs (Hypothetical)

Nieztchean Uber-Amoeba · Post by **Nieztchean Uber-Amoeba** » 2006-04-21 02:11pm

One of the main factors which led to European domination of much of the known world, besides their great technology and advances, were germs like smallpox they brought with them to the new lands they discovered. Some estimates peg as much as 95%-99% of Native Americans dying of European-brought plagues suring the Colonial Era.

So, as a hypotheical scenario, what if, by handwavium, native populations of other regions got the same resistances that Europeans had to germs? What kind of impact would it have on the development of the New World? Would the Incan Empire still exist in small refuges after buying English gunsto fight the Spaniards? Would Mississipian guerillas still wage war against the United States?

Discuss!

drachefly · Post by **drachefly** » 2006-04-21 03:59pm

Consider that the Chinese were defeated navally just by guns, without the aid of horses, steel, or germs; but this was only enough to enforce an unfavorable trade arrangement, not enough to take the place over.

The Spanish could have had to operate in a fashion much more akin to the later English empire -- divide and conquer, rule by proxy -- rather than their original style of sending in missionaries who infected everyone, then the conquistadors finished the job and forced all the locals into slavery.

As for trading guns... look all the good it did the Indians in the French and Indian war. Without the means of production, they are at the mercy of internal European politics.

dworkin · Post by **dworkin** » 2006-04-21 04:18pm

I remember, Mr Diamond in 'Guns, Germs and Steel' saying that the big factor was that that of 'reinforcements'. Wave after wave of settlers, explorers, soldiers fueled by superior agriculture is what led to european expansion.

It would just take longer.

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2006-04-21 06:01pm

Without the germs, the reinforcement waves may never have come. Those reinforcement waves never came to Africa or Asia to displace the native populations, despite the European technological advantage. The reinforcements could come to America because America was empty for them.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2006-04-21 06:13pm

The Europeans would still be able to destroy any force in the Americas. It would take longer and with more losses, but it would happen. Pizarro took what, about 200 men against the entire Inca Empire? The Inca hadn’t been significantly weakened by disease before he pulled off his main victories.

Aeolus · Post by **Aeolus** » 2006-04-22 01:53am

Sea Skimmer wrote:The Europeans would still be able to destroy any force in the Americas. It would take longer and with more losses, but it would happen. Pizarro took what, about 200 men against the entire Inca Empire? The Inca hadn’t been significantly weakened by disease before he pulled off his main victories.

They were fighting a civil war in large part started by European diseases.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2006-04-22 02:25pm

It would also lessen the certainty of the invaders' righteous cause. Part of their righteous belief in their own Manifest Destiny was the fact that, as they put it, "God stretched out his hand and cleared the land for us."

Guardsman Bass · Post by **Guardsman Bass** » 2006-04-22 03:40pm

Take a look at Africa. Most likely, rather than having 90% of the native population annihilated by disease (enough so that the European colonists in America had a decent period of expansion time), you'd end up with just domination of the coastal regions, and possibly in-land.

Arthur_Tuxedo · Post by **Arthur_Tuxedo** » 2006-04-22 08:43pm

People are forgetting the time periods involved, here. After the Inustrial Revolution, Europe could pretty much carve up the world at will, not so before. With matchlock muskets and primitive 16th century cannons, the settlers wouldn't have stood a chance against the big native American empires.

Post by **Broomstick** » 2006-04-23 10:05am

RedImperator wrote:Without the germs, the reinforcement waves may never have come. Those reinforcement waves never came to Africa or Asia to displace the native populations, despite the European technological advantage. The reinforcements could come to America because America was empty for them.

In part, the reinforcements never came to Africa because Europeans died in droves from diseases the Africans had resistance to. Malaria, for example - the British might have influenced or even ruled parts of both Africa and Asia due to technological and military superiority, but they died from Malaria at a much faster rate than the natives.